Mercenaries fighting for Moscow are being backed by Russia’s air force as they seek to capture Bakhmut, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
The U.S. think tank’s latest assessment of the conflict highlighted comments by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, that Russian-backed forces now control more than four-fifths of territory in the Donetsk town, which has been fought over for months.
This follows claims by the Russian Ministry of Defense that Wagner fighters were leading efforts to take territory in Bakhmut, seeking to push Ukrainian troops back from the town’s center.
Prigozhin, a businessman with close ties to President Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly criticized the Russian defense establishment for not providing the ammunition he says his troops need.NEWSWEEK NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP >
But the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report on Tuesday suggested that the ministry is acknowledging the role of Prigozhin’s forces.
The ISW said Russian airborne forces were giving support to Wagner’s flanks north and south of Bakhmut. This Russian aviation component probably only aims to hold these flanks rather than make any significant advances.
This showed how the Russian ministry „intends to use the Wagner Group to capture Bakhmut while minimizing casualties among conventional Russian forces,“ the think said.NEWSWEEK SUBSCRIPTION OFFERS >
It also reinforces a previous ISW assessment that the ministry seeks to use Wagner forces to capture Bakhmut „then supplant them and take credit for the victory.“
The think tank said Russian forces had occupied at least 11.84 square miles or 76.5 percent of Bakhmut. However, this increases to 13.32 square miles—86.1 percent—when taking all Russian-claimed territory into account.
Newsweek has emailed the Russian defense ministry for comment.
Bakhmut has become a focus for Russian forces despite its relative lack of strategic value while Ukraine’s commitment to the fight there comes ahead of a widely anticipated Kyiv offensive aided by western weapons.
In a Substack article published on Wednesday, retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan listed options for Russian forces in the coming months that could follow what he describes as the Kremlin’s „Bakhmut fixation.“
These include „keep plodding away“ with their current offensive activities in the east, although this would risk physical, mental and logistical exhaustion.
Another option could be to switch their main effort for offensive operations to the south, where they have troop numbers who can carry out „spoiling attacks to impact on the potential for Ukrainian offensives.“
Russia could also shut down their offensive activities across the east and hunker down for the Ukrainian offensives.
„If the Russians really are in this for the long haul and are more focused on attrition of the Ukrainians than taking more territory,“ Ryan wrote, „this is a logical course of action for them.“
